Basra Offensive

The Iraqi government's growing assault on militia forces in Basra had been expected for some time. The actual timing of the assault, however, has reportedly caught the United States by surprise.

That is generally believable except for that the British newspaper the Independent reported on March 20th statements by an Iraqi military leader saying that the Iraqi military were about to do just what they are doing.

That American forces on the ground would be unaware of such statements by the Iraqi general in charge of security for Southern Iraq is unlikely, so why let the story hang out there unanswered?

Two possibilities come to mind: the U.S. was not interested in preventing the action, or they were unable to.

The fact that Moqtada al Sadr, whose forces and allies are facing the brunt of the Iraqi government's attack, has yet to lift his cease-fire order adds an intriguing twist to the calculus. 

The decision by the powerful Shiite leader to impose a cease-fire has led to a far quieter period in Iraq than there otherwise would have been. U.S. and Iraqi government forces have been freed up to turn their attention towards the Sunni militias, often in cooperation (tacit or overt) with the Shiite militias they were once battling (Sadr led his forces, the Mahdi army, and others in two uprisings against the U.S. military).

The government assault unraveled fairly quickly, however, and U.S. forces have become increasingly involved in supporting the fledgling military force.

Another aspect to Sadr's refusal to sanction action is he and his allies are direct political competitors with the current leadership of the government, Nuri al-Maliki and his Dawa party as well as the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (formerly the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, SCIRI). They refused to participate in the last round of elections and have made no promises to the next round.

Given that the Shiite forces aligned with Sadr are now being attacked by a government whose legitimacy they do not recognize, their "official" neutrality may show some political cunning. The forces are certainly defending themselves, officially or not, and the government forces are unlikely to achieve any sort of victory barring intense American involvement.

Sadr is far more likely to come out ahead in such a match-up. He is unlikely to have any less friendly relations with the opposition and by staying above the fray even under the government's assault will only improve his image among Shiites sympathetic to him, or distrusting of the Maliki-led government.

Turkish Operations In Iraq

 Turkish forces invaded the mountainous border region of Iraq following a sustained air and artillery attack. The operation is aimed, tacitly at the Kurish Workers Party, the PKK. The PKK has conduced numerous raids into Turkey over the issue of a sovereign Kurdish land. 

The traditional lands of the Kurdish people chris-crossed  by the modern borders of Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Syria and Armenia. 

The has operated out of the Kurdish-controlled north of Iraq, referred to as Iraqi Kurdistan, much to the Turks' annoyance. 

It is widely acknowledged that the PKK has conducted terrorist operations and poses a threat to Turkey security. The United States and the international community support and understand the Turks' pursuit of their members. Even the presence of Turkish special forces in Kurdish-controlled Iraq is an accepted reality to the Kurdish party.

Yet as the one relatively stable portion of post-Saddam Iraq, there is a fine balance that must be maintained. Turkish concerns about a Kurdish state growing in both power and influence on its border are understood, but as a potentially stabilizing factor in the precarious future of Iraq, the Kurds' own sovereignty and sense of safety must also be maintained.

Via the World Politics Review blog, the Turkish paper Hurriyet has ongoing coverage of the operation.

- Murphy

Conservatives Staying In?

The National Review's Stanley Kurtz is imploring conservative voters to get over their McCain fatigue and vote, but not for McCain.

Kurtz asks:

The notion of staying home — as opposed to going out and voting for a Republican congress–is sheer madness. Given the ongoing wrangle over McCain, the race for congress has got to start coming to the fore as an issue.

There is no margin for error in 2008. Precisely because the left controls key levers of the culture, politics is the only real route to balance. America is not that far from sliding into the culture and politics of Europe, and so conservatives simply can’t afford a sweeping political loss right now.

If the torpor is so great in the Republican base, perhaps Democratic fears of an anti-Hillary vote will fail to materialize. If she takes the nomination, it is inevitable that the opposition will rise to a fever pitch, but will that be enough to motive conservatives to the polls? Will that be enough to counter the anti-Republican vote that Hillary will also benefit from?

- Murphy

Guzzling the Kool Aid

Speaking on NPR's Talk of the Nation today, author Ronald Kessler criticized the media for publishing the fact that U.S. intelligence services have use waterboarding techniques. That information, he says, hurt U.S. efforts because when potential enemies are being waterboarded, they will be emboldened by the knowledge that it's only "simulated" drowning.

I am sure the many despotic governments in the world who "simulate" a respect for human rights and international law understand his perspective very well.

He may be right, though. Torture is like a hiccup cure, it only really work when it comes as a surprise.

I guess no one should break it to a dogged investigator like Kessler that these "secret" techniques have a long and dirty history and have even been documented in U.S. military manuals. Or that the reason the use of torture would have been secret at all is because the rest of the world believes the U.S. wouldn't stoop to such methods (or already believes we do an thus there is no benefit either). 

We wouldn't want to put him out or force him to think of other reasons the U.S.'s efforts to stop terrorism and the world's trust besides the media's effort to undercut our homeland.

- Murphy

Public Opposes Escalation

From Pollster.com, a Gallup poll find 61% of public opposes escalation.

- Murphy

Jefferson's Quran

Christopher Hitchens has taken some stretches with his arguments defending the invasion of Iraq and attempting to expose the threat of militant factions Islamic factions, mostly when he has been in the midst of public debate, which is perhaps understandable. When he sits down to tackle history, however, he is often fascinating and displays some truly original scholarship.

A recent application of his efforts appears in today's Slate magazine where he tackles the. likely, unknown history of Thomas Jefferson's approach to issues of faith and the public expression of religion.

It was quite witty of Rep. Keith Ellison, D-Minn., to short-circuit the hostility of those who criticized him for taking his oath on the Quran and to ask the Library of Congress for the loan of Thomas Jefferson's copy of that holy book. But the irony of this, which certainly made his stupid Christian fundamentalist critics look even stupider, ought to be partly at his own expense as well.

- Murphy

New Hampshire Poll

In another poll, this time from Research 2000, Clinton leads (22%), with Obama (21%) a close second followed by Edwards (16%) and Gore (10%).

- Murphy

Clinton leads in Polls

Polls in four important presidential primary states have Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) leading polls while the meteoric Sen. Barack Obama lingers behind.

On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz) and former New York Mayor Rudi Juliani, trade measures, each grabbing the lead in two states.

Obama's high-profile apparently affects regular political consumers more than everyday voters. His lower-than-expected showing in some polls has been chalked up to lack of name recognition, but the voters in Iowa, South Carolina, New Hampshire certainly aren't political naifs, though Nevada has only recently begun to attract the attention the other three have.

That said, Obama's best performance in the American Research Group polls is in the state he has spent the most time in recently, New Hampshire.

Currently Clinton and Edwards are lying low. If Obama does decide to run, he could well make up any differential in name recognition with a year of steady campaigning. As a potential campaign wears on, his novelty will wear, but with careful planning he is guaranteed to have oodles of free press.

- Murphy

The Hammer's Ripple

Our mothers always tell us to do well by others. It's an implicit knowledge of fate, but delivered without the hokey "vision thing." In the end, the rubber band often does snap back in our face.

Bonilla's stunning defeat raises a question Republicans cannot dismiss: Could President Bush's home state go blue? Pundits chalked up Texas Gov. Rick Perry's (R) 38-percent win last month to the weird four-way race he was forced to endure. But if Texas Hispanics, the fastest growing segment of the state's population, are bolting the GOP over immigration, that could have big statewide and national ramifications.

- Murphy

The great decline is picking up speed.

Jeeez....just when you think Broadway productions designed to wring the last few dollars out of a formerly authentic idea had hit bottom, along comes this: Like a Rolling Stone.


Someone better check on Dylan, this might have killed him.

It's like every thing wrong with modern theater rolled into one package. It's like the twisted love child of some forbidden rendezvous between Andrew lloyd Weber and Disney's marketing department.

Of course they'll probably rake in some dough and critical praise, "It's like Moving Out, but more authentic 'cause its Dylan!" Elton John's work almost works with the schlock treatment, but this is somewhere in the region around Mr. Spock and the "Ballad of Bilbo Baggins."

- Murphy